5 Labor Market Trends to Follow…

Paul Toomey, an expert in labor market data, workforce development and unemployment insurance, recently identified in this forbes.com article, 5 key trends to follow in today’s labor market. As President of Geographic Solutions and a Forbes Council Member, Toomey gathers his experience and expertise to formulate these important trends to consider when mapping out a company’s development. These trends are highlighted below and can be read more in depth in the full article.

~ 1. The impact of AI – Though early reports have stated that AI would potentially eliminate up to half of entry-level jobs, an alternative thought suggests that these entry-level jobs won’t be eliminated, simply transformed. This new work environment consists of AI and entry-level jobs already coexisting due to the fact that 30% of workers currently use it.

~ 2. Demographic Shifts – Scarcity of talent has resulted from large populations aging out and lower birth rates in higher-income countries, and in lower-income countries the workforce population is expanding. This creates an increased demand and market competition for skilled workers.

~ 3. Alternative Career Paths – Being skilled in trades is becoming increasingly of interest to Gen-Z, making up 18% of the trades workforce in 2024.

~ 4. The Impact of Tariffs – The Forbes 2025 Quarter 2 Economist Corner forecast shows that U.S. labor market reflects durability along with job creation rates, continuing at a steady pace.

~ 5. The Need for Education – In some industries, education services exceeded average growth compared to previous quarter reports and aligned with hiring expectations for the coming school year.

As suggested by Toomey, leveraging labor market insights are critical to organizations as a competitive edge to better navigate economic shifts. Though the Bureau of Labor Statics (BLS) is a comprehensive view of the labor market, Toomey recommends focusing on these key areas from the monthly report first:

“Examine the unemployment rate in conjunction with the labor force participation rate. An increase in the unemployment rate, accompanied by a larger increase in labor force participation rate, can signal that more people felt encouraged to search for work again after the economy improved.”

“Conversely, a decline in the unemployment rate can be misinterpreted as good news when the labor force participation rate shrinks, because workers feel discouraged they will successfully find work and drop out of the labor force.”

“When looking for storm clouds ahead in the labor market, it’s helpful to look at employment in the leisure and hospitality sector. This industrial group includes restaurants, hotels, arts and most entertainment outside of the home. An approaching slowdown or recession often leads households to pull back on spending, particularly on vacations and at restaurants. Analyzing the trade, transportation and utilities industry can reveal how companies are coping with new tariff policies.”