June 2017 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

The June 2017 State of Oregon Economic Indexes was released today.  Full report is available here. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

The pace of Oregon’s economy picked up in recent months. The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity jumped back up to 1.63 in June. Highlights of the report include:

• Recall that when analyzing these numbers it is important to follow the underlying trends due to volatility of index components. Still, the three-month moving average was 1.42, the highest reading over the period covered by the measure (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
• Also, solid construction employment made a positive contribution; the number of construction sector jobs is approaching the previous peak experienced during the housing bubble.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators edged down in June, losing 0.3%; the measure has been tracking sideways in recent months, consistent with behavior experienced in a mature stage of the business cycle.
• The interest rate spread narrowed as the Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term interest rates to prevent the national economy from overheating. More interest rate hikes are expected.

Together, these indicators suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity.