August 2020 Oregon Regional Economic Indexes

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for August 2020. The release date is October 27, 2020. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Full report here with charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Regional indexes were nearly neutral to positive, cooling a bit as expected after the initial rebound from this year’s business shutdowns Highlights of this month’s report include:

• Moving average measures, which smooth monthly volatility, remained in a similar pattern to last month with the Salem and Rogue Valley moving average measures still negative because they require a longer lag to smooth the monthly volatility.
• Reflecting a shift from the initial wave of re-hiring when restrictions on activity were eased, employment component contributions were generally muted relative to recent months. The positive impact of falling unemployment rates were evident in the less negative or even neutral contributions although initial unemployment claims remain elevated and a drag on the measures.
• Housing permits made near neutral contributions in all regions. In response to lower mortgage rates and demographic trends, demand for homes accelerated during the pandemic.
• If builders do not match the demand with an increased pace of building, we will continue to experience upward pressure on prices. This pressure may be intensified in regions affected by wildfires.
• Stronger lodging revenue and airport traffic helped support the Central Oregon measure. Overall, the pace of the recovery is slowing as anticipated and will likely remain muted until people feel comfortable returning to pre-pandemic patterns of consumption.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)