January 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for January 2021. The release date is March 19, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity was 0.28 in January indicating above average growth, while the moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was at -0.07, close to an average reading but low relative to past economic expansions.

Highlights of the report include:

• Job losses at the end of 2020 due to the intensification of the pandemic and subsequent restrictions on economic activity were partially reversed in January and positively supported the service sector component of the measure. Other components were mixed and yielded near-neutral contributions from the manufacturing, construction, and household sectors.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.8% in January while the December gain was revised upwards to 0.4% from 0.1%.
• Initial unemployment claims fell as anticipated as the hit to jobs late last year eased. Employment services payrolls, largely temporary help, rose; this is traditionally a good leading indicator of future overall job growth.
• Housing units permitted have been steady in recent months. Oregon trucking activity as measured by the weight-distance tax rose; trucking activity did not suffer the declines typically associated with economic downturns because during the past year goods spending surged while services spending struggled.
• Average weekly hours worked in manufacturing rose, consumer sentiment firmed, and orders for manufactured capital goods maintained its V-shaped recovery, all positive signs suggesting stronger economic activity ahead.

Data were updated to incorporate annual revisions to employment series. The recession probability measure was also updated. This measure, developed by UO economics professor Jeremy Piger, indicates that the technical recession, as defined by negative economic activity, most likely lasted only two months, March and April of 2020. While growing since May, however, the economy remains in below pre-pandemic levels of activity.