June 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for June 2021. The release date is August 2, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

Oregon’s economic expansion remained intact in June. The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose from 0.35 to 0.44 while the moving average measure, which smooths out the monthly volatility, was 0.28 (where 0.0 is the average pace of growth since 1990). Highlights of the report:

• The manufacturing and construction sector components made nearly neutral contributions. All components of the household sector made neutral to positive contributions while the employment components of the service sector were mixed but on net supportive of the overall measure.
• Oregon gained 7,500 jobs in June, a healthy pace of growth yet employment is still 104,000 jobs below the pre-pandemic level.
  
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators edged higher in June, gaining 0.1% for the sixth consecutive gain.
• Initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since February of 2020; improving economic conditions have greatly reduced the pace of layoffs. Employment services payrolls, mostly temporary help employment, rose to the highest level since the pandemic began and foreshadows additional overall employment gains in the months ahead.
• Housing units permitted and consumer sentiment rose while the weight distance tax (a measure of trucking activity) and the new orders for core-capital goods edged down after a series of solid gains. Manufacturing hours worked – which became a more volatile indicator before the pandemic – slipped.

The economy has been making steady progress in recovering from the pandemic although there remains considerable ground still to cover particularly with respect to the level of employment. Improvement should continue in the months ahead. While the rising number of Covid cases poses a risk to the outlook, each new wave of the pandemic appears to have a smaller economic impact than the last wave as firms increasingly learn to live with the virus. 

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Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)