October 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for October 2021. The release date is November 4, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The data flow firmed somewhat in October; the underlying economic expansion still holds. Details include:

  • The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to -0.02 while the moving average measure, which smooths out the monthly volatility, fell to an essentially neutral value of -0.1 (where 0.0 is the average pace of growth since 1990).
  • Mixed numbers in the service sector employment components were the primary drag on the overall numbers. Outside of the service sector, the construction, manufacturing, and employment services jobs components all made solid positive contributions. 
  • The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose in October, gaining 0.5% after two consecutive declines. Employment services payrolls, mostly temporary help employment, gained sharply while initial unemployment claims fell sharply; such moves generally foreshadow overall job gains.
  • Housing units permitted declined and have in general softened since this summer. Single family permits have returned to pre-pandemic levels, following the path of national activity with supply constraints weighing on building activity and slowing home construction.
  • The weight distance tax (a measure of trucking activity) fell; this data can be volatile. New orders for core manufactured capital goods (an indicator of business expansion activity) and hours worked in manufacturing both rose while consumer sentiment declined.
  • The decline in confidence is inconsistent with the ongoing solid pace of consumer spending and may indicate discomfort with higher inflation. In addition, the underlying data reveals that reported satisfaction with the economy is becoming increasingly dependent on political identity.

It is normal for the UO Index to move sideways after a period of rapid gains. As such the recent pattern does not signal a fundamental shift in the outlook. The expansion is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, allowing the state’s economy to make up for ground lost during the pandemic.

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