August 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for Augsut 2021. The release date is October 11, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon economy slowed in August, but underlying trends indicate the recovery continues. Highlights of the report include:

• The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose slipped from 0.71 to 0.25 while the moving average measure, which smooths out the monthly volatility, was effectively unchanged at 0.44 (where 0.0 is the average pace of growth since 1990).
• Employment components again made the most substantial contributions to the overall measure albeit less so than in August. On net, remaining indicators made neutral to modestly negative contributions.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators fell 0.6% in August, the first decline since November 2020.
• Employment services payrolls, mostly temporary help employment, edged down while initial unemployment claims ticked up. Housing units permitted decline modestly after a solid gain in July. The weight distance tax (a measure of trucking activity), new orders for core manufactured capital goods (adjusted for inflation), and hours worked in manufacturing all rose, a positive sign for the state’s factory sector.
• Consumer confidence fell sharply; anecdotal reports suggest rising Covid cases and higher inflation are weighing on sentiment. Still, consumer spending appears resilient to these concerns.

A single month decline in the UO Index is not cause for concern. As the economy expansions, we typically hit a point where the UO index starts moving sideways. The expansion is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, allowing the state’s economy to make up for ground lost during the pandemic.