February 2020 University of Oregon Regional Economic Indicators

Good morning. Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for February 2020. The release date is April 22, 2020. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Full report with charts here!

Oregon’s largest metropolitan regions entered 2020 on an upward trend that was quickly upended by the Covid-19 pandemic. Highlights of this month’s report include:

• This is the last release of the regional indicators prior to the shutdown of activity necessitated by the Covid-19 virus. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to officially determine that a recession began in March, the sharp downturn is activity makes such a declaration inevitable.
• There were essentially no leading indicators to help forecast this recession.
• As of February, regional measures of economic activity continued to indicate above average economic growth across almost all of Oregon’s major metropolitan regions.
• Upcoming data releases will reveal the extent of the economic damage triggered by this “Great Suppression” of activity to control the spread of the virus.
• Forecasting the timing of an economic recovery is challenged by the lack of historical precedent; ultimately, the economic outcomes will depend on the evolution of the pandemic.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)