February 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for February 2021. The release date is March 30, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

Forward looking indicators point toward an improving economy in Oregon in the months ahead. Highlights of the report include:

• The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity edged down 0.16 in February from a revised 0.19 in January. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was -0.08, just below the average reading but low relative to past economic expansions.  Employment components in the services sector provided the most substantial support to the measure while the hours worked component of the manufacturing sector made the largest negative contribution.
• Note though that remaining manufacturing components made nearly neutral contributions; overall, the sector is experiencing a healthy pace of growth as it rebounds from the pandemic.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.3% in February while the January gain was revised upwards to 0.8% from 0.9%. This marks the third consecutive month of gains in the index.
• Initial unemployment claims continued to decline while employment services payrolls, largely temporary help, edged higher; this combination generally signals an improving labor market. Oregon trucking activity as measured by the weight-distance tax rose for a second consecutive month, sustaining its general upward trend.
• Orders for core capital goods declined modestly; the typically volatile indicator had been on a sharp upward path for several months. Poor weather in much of the nation may have contributed to the decline but some normalization in the pace of new orders might also be a contributing factor. Housing units permitted rose to their highest level since August 2020.

The economy continues to heal from the damage inflicted by the pandemic and the associated restrictions on business activity. Assuming expanding vaccine availability remains sufficient to maintain progress at containing the pandemic, the economy is set for a strong rebound in 2020 as heavily-impacted services such as leisure and hospitality reopen and expand capacity.

Media Contact: Tim Duy (541-346-4660)