March 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for March 2021. The release date is April 27, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon economy is positioned for strong growth ahead. Highlights of the report include:

• The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was 0.40 where 0.0 is the average pace of growth since 1990. A substantial gain in leisure and hospitality employment provided a large boost to the services component.
• The construction and household sectors made modest negative and positive contributions, respectively. Employment made a large contribution to the manufacturing component. Overall, the measure of economic activity indicates the state is heading toward growth trend consistent with past expansions.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators saw a large gain, rising 1.2% in March. All components improved during the month.
• Initial unemployment claims continued to decline while employment services payrolls, largely temporary help, edged rose again. Oregon trucking activity as measured by the weight-distance tax rose to a record high; trucking activity did not slow sharply during the pandemic as spending on goods rose.
• Orders for core capital goods rose after a small decline in February; average weekly hours work in manufacturing rose. Housing units permitted bounced higher on the back of gains in both single- and multi-family homes.
• Consumer confidence is beginning to recovery more quickly. Market participants bid up longer term interest rates higher and widened the spread against the Federal Funds rate; a large spread typically indicates economic activity will continue to improve.

The economy is rebounding quickly from the pandemic recession. Progress should continue as the pandemic comes under greater control although rising Covid-19 cases in Oregon may temper some of the potential gains in the very near term.