May 2021 Regional Economic Indicators

Good afternoon.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for May 2021. The release date is July 28, 2021. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

I apologize that regional reports have been delayed in recent months. The reports require data from a number of different sources and since the pandemic began there has been in increase in data reporting delays that feed through to me (not unlike the supply chain challenges many firms are currently experiencing). Hopefully these delays will become fewer in the months ahead.

If you need to obtain a full series of any of the measures, please contact me.

Full report here with charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators

Growth remained solid in Oregon’s largest metro regions in May. The moving average measures, which track the underlying trend, are all above zero (zero represents the average pace of growth for each area). Report highlights include:

• Unemployment rates have fallen enough to add positively to growth measures. Initial unemployment claims, however, remain elevated and a drag on the measures.
• A rebound in airport activity created large positive contributions as travel and tourism began a strong rebound. Employment components were generally supportive although note that while gains are broad-based overall employment remains well below pre-pandemic peaks.
• Housing remains strong. Residential sales continue to make solid contributions compared to the more neutral to modest contributions from new housing permits. New housing supply has been constrained by several factors including higher material costs, labor shortages, and a limited number of buildable lots. The imbalance between supply and demand is helping to drive housing prices higher although low mortgage rates and income growth help offset the price growth.
• Municipal waste delivered to landfills again made a solid contribution to the measures; typically, the amount of waste is procyclical (increases along with the expansion) and maybe more so in this cycle considering the shift of spending from services to goods.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)