October 2019 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for October 2019. The release date is December 6, 2019. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with many charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity was o.39 in October, rising from an upwardly revised 0.25 in September. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, stands at 0.13, above average but lower than typically experienced during an economic expansion (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).

• As anticipated, revisions to employment data revealed the Oregon economy did not slow as much as previously indicated.  Overall, the manufacturing sector employment remains a drag on the measure. There are early indications that the sector is reaching a cyclical bottom; numbers may soon improve in the months ahead.
• Stronger employment data helped boost the contribution from the services sector. The household sector remains the primary contributor to the measure.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.2% in October while the September figure was revised upward. Rising employment services payrolls (mostly temporary help workers) and falling initial jobless claims both supported the UO index.
•  Orders for core capital goods edged higher, but have overall moved sideways in recent months. Still, the lack of any substantial declines in this component suggests that business investment remains fairly solid and argues against concerns about recession. Similarly, the spread between long- and short-term rates continues to increase; a steepening of the yield curve is generally a positive economic indicator.
• The combination of measures in this report suggests ongoing economic expansion albeit at a slower pace of growth compared to last year.