October 2020 Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for October 2020. The release date is December 8, 2020. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

Oregon’s economy regained momentum in October revealing its underlying strength but still faces a challenging winter.

Highlights of the report include:

• The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to 1.2 in October from an upwardly revised -0.06 in September. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, stood at 0.43 which is above average grow as more typically experienced during expansions.
• Manufacturing made a neutral contribution to the measure; in general, the sector is recovering although hours worked remain a weak spot. Low hours worked may be a consequence of pandemic safety measures and employees out due to illness or quarantine.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 1.7% in October, more than reversing September’s decline. Initial unemployment claims were down while temporary employment was up, a generally positive combination for job growth.
• Building permits and the weight distance tax were both modestly lower while hours worked in manufacturing was up but still low relative to typical expansionary levels.=
• Orders for core-capital goods continued to rise past their pre-pandemic levels; this is a good sign that firms remain committed to expansion plans and expect a more robust economy next year.

The soon-to-begin Covid-19 vaccinations provide considerable medium-term optimism as it will allow more effective containment of the pandemic and with that a full recovery of most impacted sectors such as leisure and hospitality. The near-term however remains challenged by the recent rise in the number of Covid-19 cases and the associated restrictions that will likely weigh in employment over the next two to three months.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)